All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Tue, Aug 18
Time
10:35 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-112 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The pitching edge leans Yankees, but Rodon returning off an elbow IL stint is a serious red flag that caps confidence well below PICK threshold, making this a lean only.
Key Factors
Starter ERA edge: Rodon 3.30 vs Baz 4.00 — a 0.70 gap favoring New York's arm
Team ERA gap is significant: Yankees 3.26 vs Orioles 4.24 — nearly a full run better across the rotation and bullpen
Yankees opponent OPS allowed is 0.659 vs Orioles' 0.733 — New York's pitching staff suppresses opposing offenses far more effectively
Yankees road record ATS as underdog is 11-7 (.611), showing strong value when catching plus money on the road