All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Tue, Aug 18
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-116
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-116 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
The Cardinals hold a clear pitching edge and superior road ATS profile at a reasonable -116 price, making this a lean toward STL ML, though the hitter-friendly park and Reds' home momentum prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Leahy 3.38 ERA vs Abbott 4.13 ERA — 0.75-run gap favoring STL starter
Cardinals road ATS record is elite at 33-27 (.550), while Reds home ATS is a fade signal at 31-34 (.477)
Cardinals team ERA (4.03) and WHIP (1.33) both superior to Reds (4.49 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), indicating a stronger overall pitching staff
Reds injury report is significantly heavier — Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, Spencer Steer, Blake Dunn all on IL, depleting roster depth