All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Diego Padres
@
New York Mets
Date
Tue, Aug 18
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Padres ML
Odds
-109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Padres ML
-109 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Lean Padres ML on the strength of their elite road ATS record and dominant recent ATS form, though Thornton's ERA edge and the Mets' home win streak prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Padres are 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs Mets 4-6 ATS last 10 — a 40-point gap in recent cover rate
Padres road ATS record is elite at 36-27 (.571) vs Mets home ATS of 29-34 (.460)
Padres overall ATS record is 71-55 (.563) vs Mets 58-68 (.460) — a +10% edge in win rate
Padres hold a superior overall record at 67-59 (.532) vs Mets 57-69 (.452), reflecting a meaningfully better team