All Picks
MLB · MoneylineActive
San Diego Padres
@
New York Mets
Date
Wed, Aug 19
Time
5:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Padres ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
PICK
Padres ML
-136 · 1 Unit
78%
The Edge
The King vs Stock pitching mismatch is the clearest edge on the board, backed by San Diego's elite ATS form and superior road splits, making Padres ML a PICK at a manageable -136 price.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA edge: Michael King 3.41 vs Robert Stock 6.57 — a 3.16-run gap, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant lean
San Diego is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, the hottest recent ATS run in this matchup
Padres are 37-27 (.578) ATS on the road this season — an elite road ATS mark vs Mets' 29-35 (.453) at home
San Diego's overall ATS win rate is .567 vs New York's .457 — an 11-point gap across the full season