All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Fri, Aug 21
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+194
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+194 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Cardinals ML is a LEAN at +194 driven by strong road ATS splits and underdog cover rate, but Luzardo's superior ERA and the Phillies' hot streak prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Cardinals ATS road record is elite at 35-28 (.556) vs Phillies poor home ATS of 27-38 (.415) — a 14-point gap in cover rate
Cardinals as road underdog ATS: 57-35 (.620); Phillies as home favorite ATS: 45-58 (.437) — both splits favor STL
Cardinals overall ATS record 70-59 (.543) vs Phillies 52-76 (.406) — a 14% gap flagged as a key signal
Moneyline value at +194 — implied probability ~34%, while ATS and split data suggest STL wins this type of game meaningfully more than 34% of the time