All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Atlanta Braves
@
Milwaukee Brewers
Date
Fri, Aug 21
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
American Family Field
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
-134
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Brewers ML
-134 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Milwaukee gets the lean as the better team at home with the superior starter and staff, but Atlanta's underdog ATS dominance and Sale's elite ERA keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Misiorowski ERA 1.75 vs Sale ERA 2.16 — starter edge favors Milwaukee, and Milwaukee's season record (79-49, .617) is meaningfully better than Atlanta's (75-53, .586)
Brewers team ERA 3.46 vs Braves 3.64, and team WHIP 1.16 vs 1.24 — Milwaukee's pitching staff is superior top to bottom
Brewers opponent OPS allowed 0.651 vs Braves 0.685 — Milwaukee suppresses opposing offenses at a higher rate all season
Brewers home ATS record 37-29 (.561) vs Braves road ATS 32-31 (.508), and Milwaukee is 43-23 at home SU — a dominant home environment