All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Chicago White Sox
Date
Fri, Aug 21
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Rate Field
Spread
White Sox ML
Odds
-140
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
White Sox ML
-140 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
LEAN White Sox ML — Burke's ERA advantage, elite home ATS performance, and superior run production make Chicago the directional play, but missing pitcher splits and Mets' recent form cap this at a lean rather than a firm pick.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Burke (3.15 ERA) vs. Manaea (4.22 ERA) — 1.07 ERA gap favoring the home starter
White Sox home ATS record is 38-24 (.613) vs. Mets road ATS of 29-34 (.460) — a 15-point gap
White Sox overall ATS 75-52 (.591) vs. Mets 59-69 (.461) — a 13% edge in ATS win rate
White Sox season run differential is positive (+0.4) vs. Mets negative (-0.4), and CHW has scored 605 runs to NYM's 531 with a higher team OPS (.726 vs .695)