All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
New York Yankees
Date
Sun, Aug 23
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-134
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-134 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Yankees ML is a LEAN given their pitching and run differential edges, but Judge's absence, a weak home ATS record, and a coin-flip head-to-head series prevent this from reaching PICK confidence.
Key Factors
Yankees team ERA 3.21 vs Blue Jays 3.95 — a 0.74 gap indicating a clear pitching staff advantage
Yankees +1.0 run differential edge over Toronto (+0.7 vs -0.3) reflecting sustained team quality
Yankees 7-3 ATS last 10 games — running hot entering this series finale
Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.28 with wind 8 mph out to RF favors Yankees' power-heavy lineup (177 HR vs Toronto's 124)