All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Sun, Aug 23
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
No directional edge
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
NO LEANNo clear directional edge
Coin flip — no clear edge
The data doesn't point clearly either way. Full analysis below — use it to validate your own lean.
The Edge
The pitching edge favors PHI but the -216 price demands 67%+ confidence, and PHI's .418 home ATS record combined with STL's .617 road underdog ATS mark make this a genuine coin flip with no exploitable moneyline value in either direction.
Key Factors
BOTH: Sanchez (2.51 ERA, 16-4) holds a meaningful ERA delta of 0.73 over Leahy (3.24, 10-4), favoring PHI's chances of winning outright
BOTH: STL is 36-29 (.554) ATS on the road and 58-36 (.617) ATS as a road underdog — elite underdog cover profile at +200
BOTH: PHI is only 28-39 (.418) ATS at home and 7-18 (.280) ATS as a home favorite — historically poor home ATS performance undermines the -216 price
BOTH: PHI on W8 streak with momentum and superior record (72-58, .554) vs STL on L2 (66-65, .504), but STL just covered in two of their last three games including this series