All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Chicago Cubs
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Tue, Aug 25
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-136 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Cubs carry a real pitching and offensive edge, but Arizona's home ATS strength, the head-to-head 0-3 deficit, and Chicago's ravaged bullpen keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK at -136.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Gausman's 4.58 ERA is 0.79 runs better than Kelly's 5.37 ERA on the season
Offensive superiority: Cubs team OPS .762 vs Diamondbacks .719, and 684 runs scored vs 598 — a 86-run gap over the season
Cubs road ATS record as underdog is a strong 24-10 (.706), showing they perform well in spots where they are not favored
Cubs overall win percentage .573 (75-56) meaningfully outpaces Arizona's .527 (69-62), reflecting a better overall team