All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
San Diego Padres
Date
Tue, Aug 25
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Petco Park
Spread
Padres ML
Odds
-104
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Padres ML
-104 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Lean Padres ML on the strength of Ray's pitching edge, elite home ATS performance, and Petco Park suppressing Pittsburgh's offensive advantage — but the near-even moneyline and Pittsburgh's superior offense keep this a LEAN, not a PICK.
Key Factors
Robbie Ray holds a 0.48 ERA advantage over Ashcraft (3.20 vs 3.68), the clearest starter edge in this matchup
San Diego is 8-2 ATS last 10 games and 75-56 (.573) ATS overall vs Pittsburgh's 65-67 (.492) — an 8% ATS gap
Padres are 40-26 at home (.606) vs Pirates' 29-37 on the road (.439) — a significant home/road split favoring San Diego
Petco Park run factor 0.94 and HR factor 0.85 suppresses scoring, favoring the team with the better starter and lower team ERA (SD 4.01 vs PIT 4.29)