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MLB · Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Tue, Aug 25
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Royals ML
Odds
+116
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Royals ML
+116 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
LEAN toward Royals ML on the strength of a dominant starter ERA edge and red-hot ATS form, but the price at +116 on a team with a 22-44 road record and an inferior bullpen keeps this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA edge: Lugo 4.71 vs Scherzer 7.40 — a 2.69-run gap that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant lean toward KC
KC is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, the hottest recent ATS run in this matchup
KC carries a superior team OPS (0.714 vs TOR's 0.686) and has scored 560 runs vs TOR's 521 on the season
KC as road underdog ATS: 50-39 (.562) — they cover at a strong clip when getting plus money, and they're +116 here