All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
New York Yankees
Date
Tue, Aug 25
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-140
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-140 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Yankees ML is a LEAN — superior pitching staff, better recent ATS form, and home-field advantage at a hitter-friendly park point New York's direction, but Judge and Stanton absences and an unproven opposing starter create enough uncertainty to keep this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Yankees 7-3 ATS last 10 vs Astros 2-8 ATS last 10 — a 5-game gap in recent cover rate
Will Warren (4.43 ERA) vs Ethan Pecko (0-0, 4.91 ERA) — Yankees starter has the ERA edge and meaningful MLB experience vs an unproven arm
Yankees team ERA 3.20 vs Astros team ERA 4.63 — a 1.43-run gap in pitching quality that is the largest single team-level edge in this matchup
Yankees +1.2 run differential advantage (.569 win% vs .496) reflects genuine team quality gap over a 130+ game sample