All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Chicago Cubs
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Wed, Aug 26
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-105 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The Cubs carry a clear multi-category edge in pitching, offense, and head-to-head results, but the price is nearly a coin flip (-105) and the depleted bullpen is a real risk that keeps this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Holmes 2.49 ERA vs Pfaadt 3.39 ERA — 0.90 ERA gap favors Cubs starter
Cubs offense is significantly stronger: .763 OPS vs .716, 691 runs vs 598, and 176 HR vs 129 on the season
Cubs are 37-30 (.552) ATS on the road — an elite road ATS mark — and have won 2 straight including a 7-0 blowout of Arizona yesterday
Head-to-head dominance: Cubs are 4-0 vs Arizona this season, outscoring them 21-11 across those four games