All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
San Diego Padres
Date
Wed, Aug 26
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Petco Park
Spread
Padres ML
Odds
-117
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Padres ML
-117 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
LEAN Padres ML — King's pitching edge, elite home ATS record, and a hot 8-2 ATS run point toward San Diego, but Pittsburgh's offensive superiority and momentum from yesterday's win prevent this from reaching PICK threshold at -117.
Key Factors
Michael King holds a meaningful ERA advantage over Paul Skenes (3.38 vs 3.95), with San Diego also carrying the better team ERA (3.99 vs 4.26)
Padres are 39-28 ATS at home (.582) vs Pirates 30-37 SU on the road (.448), a clear home/road split disparity
San Diego on an 8-2 ATS run last 10 games, representing a +9% ATS win rate edge over Pittsburgh's 5-5 last 10
Petco Park run factor 0.94 and HR factor 0.85 suppresses Pittsburgh's offense (team OPS 0.736), neutralizing their primary statistical advantage over San Diego