All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Seattle Mariners
Date
Wed, Aug 26
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Spread
Mariners ML
Odds
-104
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mariners ML
-104 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Kirby's ERA edge, the pitcher-friendly park, and Seattle's momentum off a dominant series-opener win create a directional lean toward the Mariners, but the near-even line and Seattle's poor home ATS record keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Kirby's 4.18 ERA vs Nola's 5.12 ERA — a 0.94 ERA gap favoring the home starter in a game where pitching is the #1 factor
T-Mobile Park run factor 0.94 and HR factor 0.87 — a pitcher-friendly environment that suppresses the Phillies' stronger offense (601 runs, .716 OPS)
Seattle won yesterday's series opener 9-2, covering +1.5 ATS, showing the home lineup is locked in against this Phillies pitching staff
Seattle's team WHIP of 1.24 vs Philadelphia's 1.31 gives the Mariners a meaningful pitching depth edge, and PHI is only 25-39 ATS on the road (.391)