All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
@
Seattle Mariners
Date
Wed, Aug 26
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
T-Mobile Park
Spread
Mariners ML
Odds
+119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mariners ML
+119 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
A LEAN toward the Mariners ML at +119 is justified by back-to-back dominant series wins at home and the plus-money price, but Luzardo's ERA edge and Philadelphia's superior offense cap this at a soft lean rather than a confident pick.
Key Factors
Seattle is 2-0 in this series with wins of 9-2 and 4-1, outscoring Philadelphia 13-3 over two games — clear recent momentum at home
Mariners on a W2 streak vs Phillies L2 streak entering this game
T-Mobile Park run factor 0.94 and HR factor 0.87 suppresses scoring, which benefits the home team's pitching edge and neutralizes Philadelphia's offensive advantage (team OPS .714 vs SEA .687)
Philadelphia is 25-40 (.385) ATS as road team and 7-18 (.280) ATS as road underdog — though they are the road favorite here, their road ATS record is the worst in the data set