All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
New York Yankees
Date
Wed, Aug 26
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-124
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-124 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Yankees' superior pitching staff and recent ATS momentum provide a lean toward New York at home, but the TBD starter and absence of Judge and Stanton introduce enough uncertainty to keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Yankees team ERA of 3.24 vs Astros team ERA of 4.65 — a 1.41-run gap representing a substantial pitching quality edge even with TBD starter
Yankees opponent OPS allowed of .661 vs Astros opponent OPS allowed of .740 — Yankees pitching staff suppresses opposing offenses far more effectively
Yankees 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Astros 3-7 ATS last 10 — clear momentum divergence
Yankees +1.1 run differential edge on the season (+0.8 vs -0.3) playing at home (33-29 home SU record) at a hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium with wind 8 mph out to RF