All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
@
Cleveland Guardians
Date
Fri, Aug 28
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Progressive Field
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-130
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-130 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cleveland's superior team pitching, dominant home underdog ATS history, and active win streak make them a slight lean at home, but KC's hot ATS run and Wacha's edge over Bibee keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Cleveland team ERA 3.73 vs KC team ERA 4.68 — a full run gap favoring the Guardians' pitching staff
Guardians home underdog ATS record 43-18 (.705) — one of the strongest home splits in the data
Cleveland on a 7-game win streak with a 6-4 ATS record last 10
Tanner Bibee ERA 3.97 vs Michael Wacha ERA 3.49 — close enough that team pitching depth (WHIP 1.26 vs 1.40) tips the edge to Cleveland