All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Diego Padres
@
Tampa Bay Rays
Date
Fri, Aug 28
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Tropicana Field
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
-128
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
-128 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Rays hold a modest home-field and pitching edge at a pitcher-friendly dome, but San Diego's elite ATS form as road underdogs keeps this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
McClanahan holds a ERA edge over Mize (3.10 vs 3.44) with Tampa Bay also carrying a superior team ERA (3.78 vs 3.94)
Rays' team WHIP of 1.15 vs Padres' 1.29 — a meaningful gap indicating Tampa Bay's pitching staff limits baserunners more consistently
Tampa Bay's home record is elite at 43-23 (.651 win%), and their ATS as home underdog is 23-12 (.657) — strong home-field value
Tropicana Field HR factor of 0.91 suppresses San Diego's power-reliant offense (148 HR, team OPS .703 vs Rays' .731)