All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
New York Mets
Date
Fri, Aug 28
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Astros ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Astros ML
-108 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
A LEAN toward the Astros ML is supported by Houston's offensive superiority and the Mets' significant injury attrition, but the near-even moneyline (-108/+101) and pitcher-friendly park limit this to a directional lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Mets are missing four key offensive contributors (Soto 10-day IL, Vientos 10-day IL, Polanco 10-day IL, Bichette day-to-day), severely depleting a lineup that already ranks below average at .695 OPS and .236 BA
Houston's team OPS (.729) and runs scored (613) meaningfully outpace New York's (.695 OPS, 552 runs), representing a real offensive gap
Hunter Brown (3.51 ERA) edges Christian Scott (3.73 ERA) in the starter matchup, giving Houston a slight pitching edge as well
Houston is on a W1 streak and fresh off a 5-1 win; Mets are on an L2 streak and have been outscored 16-3 in their last two games vs Milwaukee