All Picks
MLB · MoneylineActive
Boston Red Sox
@
New York Yankees
Date
Fri, Aug 28
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-154
Risk
MOD
PICK
Yankees ML
-154 · 1 Unit
78%
The Edge
The 2.38-ERA starter gap is the dominant MLB signal, the Yankees' 8-2 ATS last-10 run confirms momentum, and -154 sits in the moderate-favorite sweet spot where the model performs best — Yankees ML is a PICK.
Key Factors
Starter ERA edge: Schlittler 2.16 vs Sandoval 4.54 — a 2.38-run gap that meets the near-automatic lean threshold (1.5+ ERA delta)
Yankees team ERA 3.24 vs Red Sox 3.47, and Yankees Opp OPS .660 vs Red Sox Opp OPS .678 — systemic pitching superiority beyond just the starter
Yankees 8-2 ATS last 10 games — running hot and the strongest recent ATS trend on the board
Yankees as home underdog ATS record 12-7 (.632) — elite cover rate in this exact role, and at -154 they are a moderate favorite in the sweet-spot EV zone