All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sat, Aug 29
Time
12:15 AM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-112 · 1 Unit
63%
The Edge
Pittsburgh's pitching and offensive edges are real but modest, and the near-even moneyline at -112 offers acceptable value for a LEAN — not enough dominant advantages to elevate to a PICK given STL's strong home underdog ATS profile.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Jones 4.76 vs Mathews 6.43 — a 1.67-run gap that clears the 1.5+ meaningful-edge threshold
Pittsburgh offense is superior: team OPS .733 vs STL .699, team BA .252 vs .241, and 657 runs scored vs 600
Pittsburgh team ERA (4.22) and WHIP (1.32) are marginally better than St. Louis (4.24 / 1.34), giving a slight bullpen edge
Cardinals carry a heavier injury load: 6+ players on IL including two SP (Dobbins, Pallante) straining their bullpen depth behind an already shaky Mathews