All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
@
New York Yankees
Date
Sat, Aug 29
Time
5:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-115
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-115 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Yankees get a slight lean from Rodon's ERA edge, superior team pitching, and recent ATS momentum, but the loss of Judge and Stanton caps the ceiling and the -115 price offers minimal value for a matchup this close.
Key Factors
Rodon's 3.15 ERA edges Bennett's 3.49 ERA — not a massive gap but favors the home side in a close pitching matchup
Yankees team ERA of 3.22 vs Red Sox team ERA of 3.46 — New York's pitching staff has been the better unit all season
Yankees 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Red Sox 6-4 — Yankees running hotter and won yesterday's series opener 1-0
Yankee Stadium HR factor of 1.28 with wind 8 mph out to RF and clear conditions slightly favors the home offense despite both offenses being comparable