All Picks
MLB · MoneylineActive
Colorado Rockies
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Sat, Aug 29
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-218
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-218 · 1 Unit
78%
The Edge
The pitching matchup, team ERA gap, home/road splits, and head-to-head dominance all point clearly to Atlanta, but the -218 price demands 80+ confidence — this lands at 78, making it a PICK that is priced at the outer edge of value.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Perez 3.12 vs Feltner 6.08 — a 2.96-run gap, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant lean
Atlanta team ERA 3.58 vs Colorado team ERA 5.54 — a 1.96-run staff-wide advantage reflected in opponent OPS (0.685 vs 0.842)
Atlanta home record 46-23 (.667) vs Colorado road record 25-45 (.357) — a 30-percentage-point split gap
Atlanta on a W5 streak; Colorado on L2 with a -1.0 avg margin in last 10; Braves are 4-0 vs Rockies this season outscoring them 34-17