All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
@
New York Yankees
Date
Sun, Aug 30
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Red Sox ML
Odds
-119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Red Sox ML
-119 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Boston's pitching edge and superior road ATS record provide a directional lean at a fair price, but the ERA gap is below the dominant-signal threshold and the hitter-friendly park with NYY's home advantage keeps this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Suarez 3.35 ERA vs Warren 4.39 ERA — a 1.04-run gap favoring Boston in the #1 MLB handicapping factor
Boston team ERA (3.48) and opponent OPS allowed (0.675) are both superior to New York's staff metrics on the road split
Boston road ATS record is 37-33 (.529) vs Yankees home ATS of 31-36 (.463) — Boston covers more often away than NYY covers at home
Boston ML is a moderate favorite at -119, sitting in the sweet-spot EV zone (-110 to -170) where value is most accessible