All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Wed, Sep 23
Time
11:00 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Red Sox ML
Odds
-137
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Red Sox ML
-137 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Red Sox ML is a LEAN because the Gray-over-Griffin pitching edge and Boston's better offense outweigh Cleveland's hot streak, but Boston's poor home form keeps it below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Sonny Gray has a 2.82 ERA compared to Foster Griffin's 3.67, a clear 0.85-run starter edge for Boston.
Boston owns a better team OPS (.721 vs .693) and has scored more runs (680 vs 652).
Boston's team ERA is 3.59 vs Cleveland's 3.77, and its team WHIP is slightly better at 1.24 vs 1.26.
Boston is a moderate home favorite at -137, which is in the more favorable moneyline range rather than heavy juice.