All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
@
New York Yankees
Date
Wed, Sep 30
Time
12:00 AM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-155
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-155 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Yankees get a LEAN at home with superior pitching metrics and a power-friendly park, but Judge's absence and the unknown Boston starter cap confidence well below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Yankees 93-68 (.578) vs Red Sox 87-75 (.537) — meaningful record gap late in season
Yankees home record 46-34 (.575) with ATS 41-39 (.513) as home team
Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.28 with wind 8 mph out to RF favors Yankees' 223 HR offense (vs BOS 163 HR)
Yankees team ERA 3.24 and WHIP 1.17 both superior to Boston's 3.54/1.23; Opp OPS allowed .661 vs BOS .683