All Picks
CFB · Spread
Ohio State Buckeyes
@
Iowa Hawkeyes
Date
Sat, Oct 3
Time
7:30 PM
Venue
Kinnick Stadium
Spread
Hawkeyes +13.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Hawkeyes +13.5
-110 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Iowa's stout defense, home field, and the structural bias against laying 13.5+ in a conference game give the Hawkeyes a lean to cover, but Ohio State's passing superiority is a real threat to blow it open.
Key Factors
Iowa's defense allows only 8.0 PA/G — the structural ceiling on Ohio State's margin makes covering 13.5 difficult
Iowa's rush attack (6.5 ypc, 215.5 rush YPG) vs Ohio State's 4.6 ypc rush defense — Iowa can control clock and keep it close
Conference game with familiar staffs — methodology flags conference underdogs cover slightly more often, and 13.5 is a large number to lay in-conference
Blowout/backdoor cover bias: laying 14+ points is structurally disadvantaged; starters exit late and Iowa's defense (9.0 sacks, 8.0 PA/G) can manufacture late stops