All Picks
NFL · Spread
Indianapolis Colts
@
Washington Commanders
Date
Sun, Oct 4
Time
1:30 PM
Venue
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Spread
Commanders +3.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Commanders +3.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Washington's QB efficiency edge and neutral-site adjustment deflate the Colts' spread enough to lean the Commanders as a live dog at +3.5 on a key number.
Key Factors
Neutral site reduces IND's effective spread from -3.5 to roughly -1, per the ~2.5pt adjustment
Washington QB rating 98.5 vs Indianapolis 80.8 — an 18-point gap signaling real passing efficiency edge
Washington TO diff +2 vs Indianapolis -5; Colts' negative luck likely regresses but current record is misleading
Washington better point differential (-17 vs -19) and fewer sacks allowed (3 vs 6)