All Picks
NFL · Spread
New York Jets
@
Chicago Bears
Date
Sun, Oct 4
Time
5:00 PM
Venue
Soldier Field
Spread
Bears -3.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Bears -3.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Chicago's scoring margin and ground dominance are the clearest team-quality signals, but the line crossing 3 and the Jets' passing efficiency keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Scoring margin gap: Bears +12.0/g vs Jets +1.0/g — an 11-point quality signal on only 3 games
Rush efficiency: Bears 5.3 ypc vs Jets 3.3 ypc; Bears 184.3 rush YPG vs Jets 92.3 — dominant ground game
Third-down conversion: Bears 47.6% vs Jets 37.2% — a 10pp possession efficiency edge
Bears' TO differential (+3) vs Jets (+1) — Bears have been the cleaner team, though regression applies