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NFL · Spread
Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Cincinnati Bengals
Date
Sun, Oct 4
Time
5:00 PM
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Spread
Jaguars +2.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Jaguars +2.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Jacksonville shows the cleaner team profile by scoring margin and red-zone efficiency, and getting points as the better team on a key number is a lean-worthy spot, but small sample size caps this at a LEAN.
Key Factors
Jacksonville +29.0 total point differential (46 vs 17) on identical 2-1 records
Red-zone TD rate edge: JAX 88.9% vs CIN 50.0% — a 39pp gap worth roughly 4 points per game
Jacksonville PA/G of 12.0 vs Cincinnati PA/G of 21.0 — defense allowing 9 fewer points per game
Jaguars getting +2.5 points on the spread despite being the statistically superior team by margin