All Picks
NFL · Spread
Green Bay Packers
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date
Sun, Oct 4
Time
5:00 PM
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Spread
Packers -3.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Packers -3.5
-110 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
A lean toward Packers on pass efficiency and rest edge, but the -3.5 crossing the key number of 3 and Tampa's better scoring margin keep this firmly a LEAN.
Key Factors
Green Bay YPA 6.8 vs Tampa 6.2 — a 0.6 gap favoring the Packers offense
Sacks allowed: GB 8 vs TB 13 — Packers protect the passer significantly better
Tampa -5 turnover differential is extreme bad luck that regresses upward, meaning their 0-3 record likely overstates how bad they are — but their scoring margin (-5.7/g) is still better than GB's (-11.7/g)
GB has 10 days rest vs Tampa's standard week — a mini-bye preparation edge