All Picks
NFL · Spread
Miami Dolphins
@
Minnesota Vikings
Date
Sun, Oct 4
Time
8:05 PM
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Spread
Vikings -10.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Vikings -10.5
-110 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
Vikings are the clearly superior team by every margin metric, but the -10.5 number is steep on three games of data and Miami's pass efficiency edge introduces enough uncertainty to keep this a LEAN.
Key Factors
Vikings +80.0 total point differential vs Dolphins (-50.0) — the clearest team-quality signal available
Vikings red-zone TD rate 80.0% vs Dolphins 28.6% — a 51pp gap worth roughly 4 points per game
Vikings defense allowing only 13.7 PPG vs Dolphins offense scoring 12.0 PPG — direct matchup favors Minnesota
Vikings 14 defensive sacks vs Dolphins 0 — massive pass-rush edge against a Miami offense already struggling (QB rating 74.1)