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CFB · Spread
Louisville Cardinals
@
NC State Wolfpack
Date
Sat, Oct 3
Time
7:30 PM
Venue
Carter-Finley Stadium
Spread
Cardinals +3.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals +3.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Louisville's passing efficiency edge and conference underdog status provide a lean to cover the small number, but small sample size and NC State's 3rd-down dominance keep this a LEAN only.
Key Factors
Louisville's Yds/PassAtt of 10.2 vs NC State's 7.6 — a +2.6 gap, the strongest single efficiency predictor in the data
Turnover differential: Louisville +3 vs NC State -1, a 4-turnover swing that partially explains records
Conference underdog spot — ACC familiarity compresses talent gaps and underdogs cover slightly more often
Louisville penalties 9.0/g are a concern but their QB rating (175.6 vs 145.8) and completion % (69 vs 68) show cleaner passing execution