All Picks
MLB · MoneylineCancelled
Cincinnati Reds
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Wed, Apr 8
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
PICK
Reds ML
+113 · 1 Unit
78%
➖ Push
The Edge
The Reds' perfect road record, dominant ATS trend, superior team ERA, and plus-money price combine to make Cincinnati ML a clear value play against a Marlins team that is structurally fading at home.
Key Factors
Reds are 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS on the road this season (1.000 road ATS), the strongest road split in this dataset
Cincinnati's team ERA is 2.82 vs Miami's 4.95-equivalent (Perez at 5.73 ERA vs Singer at 5.00 ERA — slight edge to Singer, but Reds' team pitching is significantly better at 2.82 vs 3.95)
Reds have won 5 straight and covered in each of those games; Marlins are on a 2-game losing streak and 3-7 ATS last 10
Miami is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite (.250), making the -136 price on the Marlins a poor value proposition; Reds at +113 offer plus-money on the stronger side