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NBA · Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
@
San Antonio Spurs
Date
Thu, Apr 9
Time
1:30 AM
Venue
Frost Bank Center
Spread
Trail Blazers +3.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Trail Blazers +3.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
With Wembanyama out, the -3.5 line is likely overpriced for San Antonio, and Portland's 7-3 ATS momentum plus strong underdog cover rate makes the Blazers the value side at this number.
Key Factors
Portland is 7-3 ATS last 10 games — a meaningful hot streak vs San Antonio's flat 5-5 over the same stretch
Portland is 24-20 ATS as an underdog (.545) vs San Antonio's 14-6 ATS as underdog — Blazers historically cover well in this role
Injury wash neutralizes the talent gap: Wembanyama (San Antonio's +8.9 point differential engine) is OUT, effectively erasing most of the line justification
San Antonio's season ATS as a home favorite is only .533 — not a dominant number to lay -3.5 against a team running hot ATS