All Picks
NBA · Spread
Memphis Grizzlies
@
Denver Nuggets
Date
Thu, Apr 9
Time
1:00 AM
Venue
Ball Arena
Spread
Grizzlies +23.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Grizzlies +23.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The injury carnage on Memphis is real, but -23.5 is a historically punishing number to lay in the NBA, Denver's own ATS coldness (3-7 L10, 1-4 home L5) offers no confidence they'll cover a spread this large, making the points the lean.
Key Factors
Memphis is 26-34 ATS as an underdog on the season (.433) but the sheer size of -23.5 historically inflates underdog cover rates — lines this large are notoriously difficult to cover in the NBA
Both teams are identically cold ATS at 3-7 last 10, meaning Denver has no recent ATS momentum to justify laying a massive number
Memphis covered in 4 of their last 5 games as road underdogs of 12.5-14.5 points, showing a pattern of keeping games closer than expected even while losing
Denver is only 19-20 ATS at home (.487) on the season, well below average for an elite home team, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home