All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Fri, Apr 10
Time
6:20 PM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
+123
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
+123 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Pirates offer genuine plus-money value backed by superior recent ATS form and offensive metrics, but Imanaga's talent ceiling and Pittsburgh's bullpen attrition keep this a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Pirates are 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs Cubs' 4-6 ATS last 10 — a 30% gap in recent cover rate
Pittsburgh team OPS .720 vs Chicago .720 — Pirates hold a 40-point OPS edge and 24-point BA edge (.247 vs .223)
Imanaga ERA (4.50) is worse than Mlodzinski's ERA (4.00) — Cubs' starter is the shakier arm on paper
Pirates ML at +123 offers positive expected value for a team with a .583 overall win rate vs Cubs' .500