All Picks
NHL · Moneyline
Ottawa Senators
@
New York Islanders
Date
Sat, Apr 11
Time
5:00 PM
Venue
UBS Arena
Spread
Islanders ML
Odds
+105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Islanders ML
+105 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
NYI at plus money with the league's 5th-best goaltending, a dominant home-underdog ATS trend, and Ottawa's chronic inability to cover as a favorite makes the Islanders ML a slight but real value play.
Key Factors
NYI team SV% is 90.3% (#5 in league) vs OTT's 88.0% (#31) — a 2.3-point gap that is the largest single quality differential in this matchup
NYI as home underdog ATS record is 36-12 (.750), one of the strongest situational trends in the data
NYI moneyline is +105, offering plus money on a team with a superior goaltender and strong home record (22-14-2 at home)
Ottawa is 21-36 (.368) ATS as a favorite — they historically underperform when laying the price, making OTT -125 a poor value proposition