All Picks
NBA · Spread
Phoenix Suns
@
Oklahoma City Thunder
Date
Mon, Apr 13
Time
12:30 AM
Venue
Paycom Center
Spread
Suns +5.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Suns +5.5
-110 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The combination of OKC's historically weak home ATS (.463), Phoenix's elite road ATS (.575), and OKC's massive 9-player injury list creates enough spread value on the Suns +5.5 despite Phoenix's own significant absences and terrible recent ATS form.
Key Factors
Phoenix is 23-17 (.575) ATS on the road — elite road ATS performance that historically outperforms the spread
OKC missing 9 players including key contributors Hartenstein (C), Caruso (G), Wallace (G), and Mitchell (G) — historically a 2-starter-out scenario warrants re-evaluating the spread from scratch
Phoenix ATS overall .568 vs OKC .481 — a +9% ATS win rate edge on the season
OKC is only 19-22 (.463) ATS at home this season — a weak home ATS record that is a fade signal per methodology