All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Miami Marlins
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Tue, Apr 14
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-156
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-156 · 1 Unit
72%
✅ Winner
Miami Marlins 5, Atlanta Braves 6
+64.10u
The Edge
Lopez's dominant ERA, Atlanta's superior team pitching metrics, and a strong home ATS record combine for a clear lean toward the Braves ML at a manageable -156 price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Lopez 1.15 vs Meyer 3.68 — a 2.53-run differential, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Atlanta team ERA 2.86 vs Miami 3.87, and opponent OPS allowed 0.613 vs 0.641 — Braves pitching staff is elite top to bottom
Atlanta home ATS record 6-4 (.600) vs Miami road ATS record 2-5 (.286) — a 31-point gap in ATS win rate at this specific venue
Atlanta +2.0 run differential edge (avg margin +2.4 vs Miami +0.4) and superior team OPS 0.785 vs 0.736