All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Boston Red Sox
@
Minnesota Twins
Date
Tue, Apr 14
Time
11:40 PM
Venue
Target Field
Spread
Twins ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
PICK
Twins ML
+113 · 1 Unit
72%
✅ Winner
Boston Red Sox 0, Minnesota Twins 6
+113.00u
The Edge
The Twins ML at +113 offers plus-money value on a team with elite home splits, a meaningful run differential edge, and a 7-3 ATS run, making Boston's -136 price an overreaction to Gray's ERA against a home team that has consistently outperformed expectations.
Key Factors
Twins are 6-2 at home SU (.750) and 6-2 ATS (.750) — elite home performance this season
Minnesota +1.3 run differential edge over Boston (-0.4 vs +0.9 avg margin)
Twins 7-3 ATS last 10 vs Red Sox 4-6 ATS last 10 — a 33% ATS win rate gap
Mick Abel (0-2, 6.08 ERA) is a liability, but Boston is being priced as a -136 favorite — the market is overweighting Gray while underweighting Minnesota's home dominance and team quality edge