All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Wed, Apr 15
Time
5:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-108 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The pitching matchup leans Cleveland given May's ugly 9.45 ERA and the Guardians' superior team ERA, but the moneyline pricing (-108 CLE vs -112 STL) reflects near-even odds, making this a LEAN rather than a strong PICK given small sample concerns.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Cecconi at 5.74 ERA vs May at 9.45 ERA — a 3.71-run gap that is the largest single factor in this game
Team ERA advantage: Cleveland 3.98 vs St. Louis 5.05, a 1.07 gap indicating a meaningfully better pitching staff overall
ATS record: Guardians are 11-7 (.611) vs Cardinals 8-9 (.471) — a 14% edge in covering the spread this season
Cleveland as road underdog ATS: 9-6 (.600) this season, showing consistent value at plus or near-even money