All Picks
MLB · MoneylineActive
New York Mets
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
Date
Thu, Apr 16
Time
2:00 AM
Venue
Dodger Stadium
Spread
Dodgers ML
Odds
-232
Risk
MOD
PICK
Dodgers ML
-232 · 1 Unit
75%
The Edge
The Dodgers' elite pitching matchup with Ohtani, massive offensive superiority (.840 vs .627 OPS), and dominant record make them a clear moneyline lean despite the steep -232 price, as the Mets' 7-game skid and depleted lineup offer little resistance.
Key Factors
Ohtani starts at 0.00 ERA vs Holmes at 1.50 ERA — both are pitching well, but Ohtani is the superior ace and the Dodgers' team ERA (3.26) and WHIP (1.10) are both better than the Mets' (3.57 / 1.24)
Dodgers team OPS of .840 vs Mets .627 — a massive .213 OPS gap representing one of the largest offensive mismatches in the data
Dodgers are 13-4 (.765 win%) vs Mets 7-11 (.389) — a +2.7 run differential edge and +14% ATS win rate advantage
Mets are on a 7-game losing streak, have been outscored in this very series (0-4, 1-2), and are missing Juan Soto (IL) and Mike Tauchman (OUT) from their lineup