All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
San Francisco Giants
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Thu, Apr 16
Time
4:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-120
Risk
MOD
PICK
Reds ML
-120 · 1 Unit
75%
❌ Loss
San Francisco Giants 3, Cincinnati Reds 0
-100.00u
The Edge
Cincinnati at -120 is a fair price for a home team with a 27.8% win-rate advantage, superior pitching, a 2-0 series sweep of this exact opponent, elite ATS home performance, and a power-friendly park that magnifies their HR edge.
Key Factors
Reds are 11-7 (.611) vs Giants 6-12 (.333) — a 27.8% win-rate gap that is the largest team-quality signal in this dataset
Cincinnati ERA 3.81 vs San Francisco ERA 4.41 — a 0.60 run advantage on the mound, compounded by Opp OPS allowed (0.703 vs 0.732) showing Reds pitching suppresses opposing offenses more effectively
Reds ATS record 11-7 (.611) overall and 9-5 (.643) as home underdog/favorite — Giants ATS road record is a dismal 2-6 (.250), the sharpest ATS split in the data
Great American Ball Park run factor 1.14 / HR factor 1.22 with 8 mph wind out to RF and 72°F clear conditions — directly benefits Cincinnati's power-heavy offense (21 HRs, more than double SF's 9) and inflates scoring against a Giants staff already allowing 0.732 Opp OPS