All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
Atlanta Braves
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Fri, Apr 17
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-115
Risk
MOD
PICK
Braves ML
-115 · 1 Unit
72%
✅ Winner
Atlanta Braves 9, Philadelphia Phillies 0
+86.96u
The Edge
The pitching mismatch alone is decisive, and Atlanta's superior offense, team ERA, and ATS track record make them the clear side at a reasonable -115 price.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Perez at 3.14 vs Walker at 7.36 — a 4.22-run differential, well above the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Atlanta's team ERA of 2.93 vs Philadelphia's 4.92 — a nearly 2-run gap indicating superior pitching depth top to bottom
Atlanta's team OPS of .791 vs Philadelphia's .690, with 106 runs scored vs 72 — a dominant offensive edge
Philadelphia is 2-10 (.167) ATS at home this season, one of the worst home ATS marks in baseball, while Atlanta is 11-8 (.579) ATS overall