All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
@
New York Yankees
Date
Fri, Apr 17
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-186
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-186 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Yankees are the better team on paper with superior pitching and park factors in their favor, but the -186 juice combined with a 1-9 ATS last 10 and a depleted rotation makes this a lean rather than a confident pick.
Key Factors
Yankees +1.3 run differential edge over Royals (-0.8 vs +0.5 point differential)
Cam Schlittler 2.49 ERA vs Michael Wacha 0.43 ERA — Wacha's ERA is a tiny 2-start sample, Schlittler's 2.49 over 3 starts is more meaningful
Yankees superior team ERA (3.68) and WHIP (1.22) vs KC's 4.08 ERA and 1.32 WHIP — better pitching infrastructure top to bottom
Yankee Stadium HR factor 1.28 with wind 8 mph out to RF at 72°F — hitter-friendly conditions favor the home team with more runs scored (86 vs 65)