All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Fri, Apr 17
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+109 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Detroit's pitching edge and superior team metrics justify a lean on Tigers ML at plus money (+109), but the severe road split (2-8) caps this below a full PICK.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Mize 3.94 vs. Suarez 5.02 — a 1.08 gap favoring Detroit's starter
Team ERA gap: Detroit 3.66 vs. Boston 4.55 — Tigers staff is significantly better top to bottom
Run differential edge: Detroit +0.7 vs. Boston -0.5, a +1.2 combined gap in team quality
Detroit as underdog: ATS record as underdog is 3-1 (.750) vs. Boston's 0-2 (.000) as underdog — Tigers perform well at plus money