All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Baltimore Orioles
@
Cleveland Guardians
Date
Sat, Apr 18
Time
10:10 PM
Venue
Progressive Field
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-136 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cleveland's home dominance ATS, superior starting pitcher, and Baltimore's injury-depleted lineup provide enough directional signal for a lean on the Guardians ML at a manageable -136 price.
Key Factors
Gavin Williams ERA of 2.38 vs Dean Kremer ERA of 3.60 — a 1.22 ERA delta favoring the home starter
Cleveland home ATS record is 6-2 (.750) vs Baltimore road ATS record of 3-5 (.375) — a stark split
Guardians overall ATS win rate is .571 vs Orioles .400 — a +17% edge flagged in the data
Baltimore is carrying 6+ players on the IL including catcher Adley Rutschman and 2B Jackson Holliday, weakening their lineup construction